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Avalanche vs. Lightning odds, prediction: 2022 Stanley Cup Final picks, Game 5 bets from expert on 137-72 run

The Colorado Avalanche have had a knack for making comebacks during the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs as they’ve trailed in nine of their 15 victories. They’ve overcome third-period deficits in four of the wins and are now one away from matching the postseason record in both categories. The Avalanche hope to avoid needing another come-from-behind triumph on Friday as they attempt to capture the third championship in franchise history when they host the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 5 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. Colorado took a commanding 3-1 series lead on Wednesday, overcoming a pair of one-goal deficits before Nazem Kadri scored at 12:02 of overtime after missing four games with a broken thumb.

Opening faceoff at Ball Arena in Denver is set for 8 p.m. ET. Colorado is listed as the -175 favorite (risk $175 to win $100) in the latest Avalanche vs. Lightning odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total goals scored is six. Before making any Lightning vs. Avalanche picks or 2022 Stanley Cup Final predictions, you need to see what SportsLine NHL expert Matt Severance has to say.

Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. He is SportsLine’s top NHL handicapper, going 137-72-4 in his last 213 NHL picks and returning almost $3,000 for $100 players. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Avs vs. Lightning and locked in his picks and NHL playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NHL odds and betting lines for Lightning vs. Avs: 

  • Avalanche vs. Lightning money line: Colorado -175, Tampa Bay +150 
  • Avalanche vs. Lightning over-under: 6 goals 
  • Avalanche vs. Lightning puck line: Colorado -1.5 (+150)
  • Avalanche vs. Lightning tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • COL: The Avalanche have a plus-30 goal differential this postseason 
  • TB: The Lightning have been outscored 21-10 while losing four of their last five playoff road games

Featured Game | Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Why the Avalanche can win

Colorado has been dominant in its own building since losing back-to-back home games against St. Louis in the second round. The Avalanche have outscored their opponents 23-9 in winning four straight at Ball Arena, with six of the tallies allowed coming in Game 1 of the Western Conference final against Edmonton. Colorado has scored a total of 40 goals in its nine home contests this postseason and recorded at least seven on three occasions.

Darcy Kuemper’s confidence is through the roof after his performance on Wednesday. The 32-year-old, who was pulled in Game 3 after surrendering five goals on 22 shots, bounced back to make 37 saves and became the first goaltender to record an assist on an overtime tally in the Stanley Cup Final by making an alert breakout pass that led to Kadri’s game-winner. Colorado’s power play continues to scorch the opposition as it converted on one of its two opportunities in Game 4 and is 20-for-58 this postseason, including 6-for-13 in this series.

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay already has answered the call when its back was against the wall this postseason, knocking off Toronto in the first round after trailing 3-2 in the series. The Lightning also were being counted out in the Eastern Conference final against the New York Rangers after losing the first two contests but reeled off four consecutive victories to prove the naysayers wrong. Tampa Bay overcame a 3-1 deficit versus Pittsburgh in the 2011 conference quarterfinals but needs to look back no farther than the first round of these playoffs for inspiration as the Rangers accomplished the feat — also against the Penguins.

The Lightning have tremendous confidence in Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is the superior netminder in this series. The reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner has settled down after being torched in the team’s 7-0 loss in Game 2, allowing five goals over the last two contests – with three being power-play tallies. Anthony Cirelli has been making a habit of getting Tampa Bay’s offense going as he has scored the team’s first goal in each of the last two contests, tying Game 3 at 13:03 of the first period before tallying just 36 seconds into Game 4.

How to make Avalanche vs. Lightning picks

Severance has analyzed the Lightning vs. Avalanche game from every angle, and he is leaning over on the goal total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one team a must-back on the money line. He’s only sharing who it is and which side of the Game 5 moneyline to back at SportsLine.

So who wins Avalanche vs. Lightning in Game 5 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And what crucial X-factor makes one team a must-back? Visit Sportsline now to see which team you need to jump on, all from the expert who has crushed his NHL picks, and find out.

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