Partner Content | Blue Jays vs. Brewers prop picks: Adames a good bet to stay hot

The Toronto Blue Jays kick off a weekend set with Milwaukee Brewers on Friday looking for their first series win since they travelled to Detroit two weeks ago.

The pregame narrative: Milwaukee’s hitters have to contend with sophomore stud Alek Manoah, while the Blue Jays lineup tangles with Adrian Houser — a starter who makes life particularly difficult on right-handed bats.

Check out our Blue Jays vs. Brewer prop picks for June 24.

Blue Jays vs. Brewers prop picks overview

  • Willy Adames over 1.5 bases (+128)
  • Bo Bichette over 1.5 bases (-105)
  • Rowdy Tellez over 1.5 bases (+128)

Blue Jays vs. Brewers prop picks

Best bet: Willy Adames over 1.5 bases (+128)

In most cases backing a right-handed hitter with Manoah on the mound isn’t good for business, but Adames could be the exception to that rule.

The Blue Jays starter targets righties with sliders more than any other pitch, and Adames has been impossible to attack with that offering all season long. The shortstop has slugged .868 against sliders in 2022, posting a +11 run value per Baseball Savant. That’s the second-best total anyone has managed on that pitch this season — and only seven hitters have a higher run value against any pitch.

Adames doesn’t just have his slider-hitter prowess working in his favour either. Since coming back from an ankle injury in mid-June he’s been hitting the ball with authority. The 26-year-old has six home runs in his last 14 starts, and four in his last seven.

He also has a history of racking up extra-base hits in Milwaukee since coming over in a trade from the Tampa Bay Rays last season. In 68 games at American Family Field he’s slugged .500 with 18 home runs, and 53.7% of his knocks went for two bases or more.

As a bonus, Adames has also found success against the Blue Jays’ top five relievers (Jordan Romano, Tim Mayza, Adam Cimber, David Phelps and Yimi Garcia). In a tiny sample, he went 3-for-9 against them with two doubles and a home run.

Key stat: Since returning from the IL on June 8, Adames has slugged .567 and cleared this line in eight of his 14 starts.

Read more: Blue Jays vs. Brewers picks

Quick picks

Bichette over 1.5 bases (-105): While Bichette has cooled off a bit in recent days, his grand slam on Wednesday may have woken up the bat. More importantly, he draws a plus matchup in Houser thanks to the starter’s extremely high sinker rate (58.7%) when facing right-handed hitters like Bichette.

That’s music to the ears of a player who’s thrived against sinkers his entire career:

Season Run Value vs. Sinkers AVG vs. Sinkers SLG vs. Sinkers
2019 +5 .486 .649
2020 +7 .533 1.000
2021 +2 .353 .578
2022 +3 .308 .462

Read more:  How to bet on the Blue Jays

Tellez over 1.5 bases (+128): Left-handed batters have hit a solid .268 against Manoah this season, and Tellez is Milwaukee’s biggest threat from that side of the plate. The big first baseman has extra-base hits in three of his last four starts, has slugged .503 against right-handers on the season and has a strong .277/.358/.537 career line at American Family Field.

Odds as of 9:52 a.m. ET on 06/24/2022.


Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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